Assume a concert promoter uses a moving average forecasting method. He finds his forecasts are usually highly inaccurate. At times, he forecasts more concert goers than actually attend, and at other times he under predicts his attendance. Which explanation below would be the best choice as to why his forecasts are inaccurate?

His concert attendance is cyclical in nature

He needs to project attendance farther out using a long-term timeframe

He needs to consider qualitative data such as the popularity of the band performing

Exponential smoothing would give him the best result