B D E H M N 1 Chapter 10: Forecasting 2 3 Assignment 1 of 3: How many lawn mowers will I sell next year? 5 Do 770 Refer to the LawnKing Case study in Part Seven of the text, with the updated data shown here. First, aggregate the mowers each month, as labor and tools are very LAWNKING Historical Sales Data similar between models. Then, on the next sheets, compute your forecasted sales for the aggregate number of lawn mowers projected to be sold each month during the next year. Model of Mower 7 Year Month 18" 202 20" SP 22" SP TOTAL SOLD NOTE: SP- Self-propelled January 1,282 1.462 788 February 881 1.188 10 March 1,551 2,160 2605 1,384 April 2.221 3.238 4.144 2217 12 May 2.467 3.912 5,102 2417 June 2.188 3.125 4,400 2.189 July 2.153 2,985 3,849 1,974 August 1.998 3,295 3.644 1.926 Historical Sales Data #1 - Naive #2 MA 3 WMA 4-SES #5 - Regression #6 - Seaonality Summary 628 641 11 13 2018 15 Refer to the LawnKing shown here. First, agg LAWNKING Historical Sales Data similar between models the aggregate number next year. 5 6 NOTE: 7 Year 8 9 10 2018 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Month 18" January 770 February 628 March 1,551 April 2,221 May 2,467 June 2,188 July 2,153 August 1,998 September 1,510 October 1,355 November 1,054 December 901 January 948 February 651 March 1,660 Historical Sales Data Model of Mower 20" 20" SP 22" SP TOTAL SOLD 1,282 1,462 788 881 1,188 641 2,160 2,605 1,384 3,238 4,144 2,217 3,912 5,102 2,417 3,125 4,400 2,189 2,985 3,849 1,974 3,295 3,644 1,926 2,124 2,881 1,368 1,788 2,524 1,290 1,681 2,109 976 1,484 1,867 912 1,208 1,466 759 983 1,398 645 2,150 3,066 1,629 #1 - Naive #2 - MA #3 - WMA #4 - SES #5 - Red 2019 November 1,054 1,681 2,109 976 December 901 1,484 1,867 912 January 948 1,208 1,466 759 February 651 983 1,398 645 March 1,660 2,150 3,066 1,629 April 2,457 3,825 5,127 2,380 May 2,845 3,964 4,672 2,885 June 2,442 3,423 4,400 2,239 July 2,200 3,539 4,095 2,342 August 2,137 3,068 4,155 1,941 September 1,641 2,300 2,989 1,627 October 1,262 2,053 2,364 1,226 November 1,157 1,937 2,323 1,268 December 946 1,474 1,826 1,060 January 861 1,291 1,805 838 February 809 1,154 1,435 664 March 1,723 2,272 3,012 1,639 April 3,081 4,461 5,647 2,970 May 2,879 4,375 5,515 2,681 June 2,904 3,826 4,641 2,708 47 an nr. Historical Sales Data #1 - Naive #2 - MA #3 - WMA 2020 A AAC #4 - SES G8 fx A H 2020 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 30 31 12 3 14 15 36 17 18 19 50 51 52 53 54 55 B D E F February 809 1,154 1,435 664 March 1,723 2,272 3,012 1,639 April 3,081 4.461 5,647 2,970 May 2,879 4,375 5,515 2,681 June 2,904 3,826 4,641 2,708 July 2,479 3,730 5,051 2,305 August 2,451 3,364 4,643 2,322 September 1,550 2,710 3,379 1,477 October 1,517 2,252 2,643 1,412 November 1,239 1,914 2,469 1,140 December 1,148 1,735 1,932 1,104 January February March April May June (This will need to be forecasted later.) July August September October November December 2021 #2 - MA #3 - WMA #4 - SES #1 - Naive #5 - Regression Historical Sales Data ARS Naive Fore Historical Percentage 3 Year Month Period Sales Naive Foreca: Error error Abs[error) Error Squared 1 4 1 1 January February 5 2 1 3 March 3 7 4 1 April May 8 5 1 9 June 6 2018 Sales 1 10 7 8 O 12 9 July August September October November December 13 10 0 11 0 15 12 36 January 13 February 14 Historical Sales Data #1 - Naive #2 - MA #3 - WMA #4 - SES #5 - Regression #6 - Seaonality Summary G H 9 June 6 2018 10 7 Sales 11 8 July August September October o 12 9 0 13 10 14 November 11 0 15 12 0 16 13 December January February March 17 14 18 15 19 16 April May 17 20 21 June 18 2019 Compu 22 23 24 how go these 25 July 19 August 20 September 21 October 22 November 23 December 24 January 25 Historical Sales Data #1 - Naive 26 27 28 #3 WMA #2 - MA #4 - SES #5 - Regression Summar #6 - Seaonality Arial IA A wap. BTU 1 A Mergo Center s% Conditional Formatan Font Number Styles pboard Alignment UPDATES AVAILABLE Updates for Office are ready to be installed, but first we need to dose some apps Update now fi A D H B December 24 25 January February 26 March 27 28 29 30 2020 31 April May June July August September October November 32 33 34 35 December 36 37 January February 38 Cumulative Sum Forecast Error Mean Absolute Deviation Mean Absolute Percentage Mean Squared Error Error March 39 April 40 MADE MOC 4 CEC #3 - WMA MAAN #4 - SES #6 - Seaonality #5 - Regression Summary Historical Sales Data #1 - Naive #2 - MA Number Font Alignment Clipboard UPDATES AVAILABLE Updates for Office are ready to be installed, but first we need to close some apps. Update now 5 K D E F H G B October 34 November 35 December 36 37 January February 38 Cumulative Sum Forecast Error Mean Absolute Deviation Mean Absolute Percentage Mean Squared Error Error March 39 40 April May June CFE 41 MAD MSE MAPE 2021 42 43 July August September 44 45 October 46 November 47 December 48 Historical Sales Data #1 - Naive #2 - MA #3 - WMA #4 - SES #5 - Regression #6 - Seaonality Sur o