Based upon macroeconomic evidence and analysis, provide your own analysis regarding where you believe the U$.$S$.$ economy is operating with respect to the business cycle, i$.$e$.,$ in what phase of the business cycle $($trough$,$ expansion, eak, contraction$)$ do you believe the US economy is in$?$ Provide evidence for your assertion including, but not limited o$,$ information regarding the leading indicator the coincidence indicator, housing starts, Real GDP$,$ Consumer Confidence, stock market values, unemployment and$/$or employment. Explicitly account for any assumptions you or thers are making regarding the relationship of the explanatory variables included in your analysis and the phases of he business cycle. Based upon your conclusion, would you recommend a policy action to move the economy toward ull employment? Why or why not? And who should take what precise action?

I. Explain an Issue

a$.$ Identify and explain the stages of the business cycle.

b$.$ Explicitly state which phase of the business cycle the US economy is in$.$

II$.$ Utilize Context

a$.$ Examine a minimum of $3.$business cycle indicators that provide support to your assertion regarding the stage of the business cycle the economy is currently operating in$.$ You must include at least one leading indicator, at least one lagging indicator, and at least one coincident indicator.

b$.$ Analyze any assumptions you or others have made about the state of the economy. Analyze any assumptions you or others have made about the relationship of the explanatory variables included in your analysis and the phases of the business cycle.

III. Civic Knowledge

a$.$ Explain the monetary and fiscal policy options that can be used to move the economy to full employment at each stage of the business cycle. Identify who conducts which policies $($for example the Federal Reserve or Congress$).$

IV$.$ Understand Implications and Make Conclusions

a$.$ Provide a policy recommendation aimed at moving the economy toward full employment or effectively argue no policy actions were$-$needed.

b$.$ Reflect on the implications and consequences of engaging in your policy recommendation, or not engaging in policy.