BASES Model Projection Baseline Case

Definitely would buy	23%
% of Definites who actually buy	80%
Definite Purchases	18%
Probably would buy	40%
% of Probables who actually buy	30%
Probable Purchases	12%
Trial Rate (Definite + Probable)
Households (MM)	120
Penetration, % of households	92%
Awareness
ACV
Total Trial Households (MM)
% of households repurchasing
Repeat purchase occasions
Total Repeat Households (MM)
Total Purchases (Trial + Repeat) (MM)
Retail selling price
Retails sales volume (MM)
Montreaux sells its product at 65% of MSRP
Montreaux Sales Volume (MM)

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Exhibit 5 Montreaux Purchase Volume Estimate, Year One Trial Purchase Rate Repeat Rate by Product Definitely would buy Mediocre Product 23% 28% Probably would buy Average Product 40% 33% U.S. Households (MM) Excellent Product 120 38% Penetration 92% Repeat Purchase Occasions (units) Marketing Plan Adjustments Consumer Awareness ACV Low Support Low 14% 60% Medium Support Medium 17% 65% High Support High 20% 79% Pricing $4.49 Montreaux sells at 65% MSRP 65% Assumed penetration of chocolate users. NOTE: Acceptable hurdle rate is $30MM. All numbers are fictitious and used for illustrative purposes. Methodology 1. Trial Rate = "Definites" * 80% + "Probables" * 30% 2. Marketing-Adjusted Trial Rate = Trial Rate * % Awareness % ACV (distribution) Penetration 3. Trial Households - Households x Marketing-Adjusted Trial Rate 4. Repeat Volume = Trial Households * % of Households Repurchasing * Repeat Purchase Occasions 5. Total Purchases = Trial Purchases + Repeat Purchases 6. Retail Sales Value = Retail Selling Price * Retail Sales Volume 7. Sales Volume = Retail Sales Volume * .65; the NPD team assumed that Montreaux would sell its product for 65% of the MSRP. Exhibit 5 Montreaux Purchase Volume Estimate, Year One Trial Purchase Rate Repeat Rate by Product Definitely would buy Mediocre Product 23% 28% Probably would buy Average Product 40% 33% U.S. Households (MM) Excellent Product 120 38% Penetration 92% Repeat Purchase Occasions (units) Marketing Plan Adjustments Consumer Awareness ACV Low Support Low 14% 60% Medium Support Medium 17% 65% High Support High 20% 79% Pricing $4.49 Montreaux sells at 65% MSRP 65% Assumed penetration of chocolate users. NOTE: Acceptable hurdle rate is $30MM. All numbers are fictitious and used for illustrative purposes. Methodology 1. Trial Rate = "Definites" * 80% + "Probables" * 30% 2. Marketing-Adjusted Trial Rate = Trial Rate * % Awareness % ACV (distribution) Penetration 3. Trial Households - Households x Marketing-Adjusted Trial Rate 4. Repeat Volume = Trial Households * % of Households Repurchasing * Repeat Purchase Occasions 5. Total Purchases = Trial Purchases + Repeat Purchases 6. Retail Sales Value = Retail Selling Price * Retail Sales Volume 7. Sales Volume = Retail Sales Volume * .65; the NPD team assumed that Montreaux would sell its product for 65% of the MSRP