Question: Bell Manufacturing is considering whether it should tender for one of the two contracts (MS1 or MS2) on offer from a government department for the

Bell Manufacturing is considering whether it

Bell Manufacturing is considering whether it should tender for one of the two contracts (MS1 or MS2) on offer from a government department for the supply of certain components. The cost of tendering incurred by the company have to be recouped from the contract price. If a tender is unsuccessful, the company will have made a loss. The cost of tendering for contract MS1 is 50,000. The component supply cost if the tender is successful would be 18,000. The cost of tendering for contract MS2 is 55,000. The component supply cost if the tender is successful would be 24,000. For each contract, possible tender prices and the probability of getting the contract with a particular tender price as shown in Table 1(c). The company can only submit one tender at one possible price and cannot, for example, submit two tenders (at different prices) for the same contract. Table Q1(c) Contract MS1 Possible Tender Prices () Probability of Getting Contract 130,000 0.2 115,000 0.85 190,000 0.05 140,000 0.65 MS2 (i) Draw a decision tree for the decision that Bell Manufacturing faces. (7 marks) (ii) Using decision tree analysis determine your recommended decision (i.e. contract at a possible tender price) for Bell Manufacturing. (4 marks)

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