Question: Beta Alpha .20 .30 t Data Forecast % error Smoothed 1.140.0 1.156.8 1.174.8 1,183.2 1,201.4 1,228.0 1.164 1,186 1,152 1,219 1,272 1.221 1,163 1,136 1,127

Beta Alpha .20 .30 t Data Forecast % error

Beta Alpha .20 .30 t Data Forecast % error Smoothed 1.140.0 1.156.8 1.174.8 1,183.2 1,201.4 1,228.0 1.164 1,186 1,152 1,219 1,272 1.221 1,163 1,136 1,127 1,168 Trend 15.0 15.5 16.3 13.9 15.2 18.6 17.2 11.4 4.5 -2.0 -4.41 -4.7 -5.4 -8.3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1.155 1.172 1.191 1.197 1.217 1.247 1,259 1.251 1,232 0.8 1.2 -3.4 1.8 4.3 -2.1 -8.3 -10.1 -9.3 -3.5 -0.3 -1.1 -4.3 0.5 - 14.5 - 10.2 -7.8 7.2 7.9 1,239.8 1,228.0 1,211.0 1.200.8 1,195.4 1.188.4 1,173.2 1,166.2 1,128.6 1,091.4 1,052.6 1,041.0 1,035.4 1,034.2 1,029.4 1,029.2 1,033.6 1,178 1,134 1,171 1.011 1,009 991 1,105 1,105 1,099 1,063 1,070 1,080 1,106 -16.8 -22.9 -27.7 -22.9 - 17.7 -12.7 - 10.4 -7.3 -3.8 1,196 1,191 1,183 1,165 1,158 1,112 1,068 1,025 1,018 1,018 1,021 1. The Smoothed Average in period 6 2. The Forecast in period 10 3. The demand in period 11 4. The Trend in period 14 5. Find the Error in Period 20. 6. Using the trend adjusted model above, with the alpha and beta values provided, develop a forecast for period 28. 7. Using the data in the model, develop a six period moving average for period 26. 8. Using the data in the model, develop a forecast for period 27 using a weighted moving average model with weights of 0.5, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1 (with the first weight on the most recent data). 9. Develop a tracking signal, based on periods 13 through 16. 10. Based on your tracking signal, the model appears to track the data: A. poorly B. okay C. Indicates nothing about the models tracking

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