Calculating a VaR using a confidence level of 99.5%. Between $4 million and $10 million have a probability of 99.5% of not being exceeded. A probability of 0.5% of any specified loss level between $4 million and $10 million being exceeded. Calculating a VaR using a confidence level of 99.5%. Between $4 million and $10 million have a probability of 99.5% of not being exceeded. A probability of 0.5% of any specified loss level between $4 million and $10 million being exceeded