Case Study $1$: Forecasting Pantene Shampoo Sales at Nester's Market

Total Marks: $30$

As a student in BUS $373,$ you have been hired as a Data Analyst for Nester's market at SFU

campus. Your task is to determine the appropriate quantity of Pantene shampoo to order for

Year $2024.$ The store has provided you with historical yearly sales data for the product. Your job

is to analyze the data and make accurate forecasts for the next year.

Your tasks are as follows:

Plot the historical yearly sales data for Pantene shampoo. $(4)$

Analyze the data to determine if there is any trend or seasonality present. Explain your

findings and how they will inform your forecasting decisions. $(4)$

Evaluate Nester's current forecasting method, which uses the average sales from the last

two years to estimate sales for the next year.

a$.$ Use this method to estimate sales for Year $2024.(4)$

b$.$ Identify any drawbacks in the current method and explain why it may not be

effective. $(3)$

Suggest an alternative forecasting method that would be more appropriate for estimating

Pantene shampoo sales.

a$.$ Justify your choice of model by evaluating it against other forecasting methods

studied in the class, using measures of error such as Mean Absolute Error $($MAE$),$

Mean Absolute Percentage Error $($MAPE$),$ and Root Mean Squared Error $($RMSE$).(15)$