Case Study #$2$ is intended to test your knowledge of how to run and interpret the results of a trend regression model.

HeathCo is a manufacturing company that produces a line of skiwear that is sold under various brand names. The Product Manager of HeathCo has contracted with you to develop a model to forecast company sales. You will be supplied with quarterly sales data from $2007$ through $2016.$ They want a model that will allow them to forecast sales one year $($four quarters$)$ out.

Develop and interpret models using the methods below. Use the data from the years $2007$ to $2015$ to develop models. Evaluate the fit of your models to the data series used to create the model. Reserve $2016$ data as a holdout to evaluate the accuracy of your models.

Trend Regression

Submit both the Instructions$/$Answer sheet, your detailed forecasting model runs, and summary report of your findings in APA Format with three $(3)$ references from academic journals from the past $5$ years. You will submit a single Excel workbook with all relevant sheets. The first sheet in your workbook will be an answer sheet with clearly labeled answers to all questions and a guide to sheets where supporting Excel information can be found.

Submit the following three documents:

Completed Instructions$/$Answer sheet

Excel workbook showing forecasting models and formulas used for calculations

A summary report of your findings in APA Format $($see attached template document for instructions$)$

Resources:

Below is the data file and the Instructions$/$Answer sheet for the case study.