BBA 360 - Week 5 Case Study #4 - Time-series Decomposition

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Case Study #4 is intended to test your knowledge of how to run and interpret the results of a time-series decomposition model.

HeathCo is a manufacturing company that produces a line of skiwear that is sold under various brand names. The Product Manager of HeathCo has contracted with you to develop a model to forecast company sales. You will be supplied with quarterly sales data from 2007 through 2016. They want a model that will allow them to forecast sales one year (four quarters) out.

Develop and interpret models using the methods below. Use the data from the years 2007 to 2015 to develop models. Evaluate the fit of your models to the data series used to create the model. Reserve 2016 data as a holdout to evaluate the accuracy of your models.

• Time-series Decomposition

Submit both the Instructions/Answer sheet and your detailed forecasting model runs. You will submit a single Excel workbook with all relevant sheets. The first sheet in your workbook will be an answer sheet with clearly labeled answers to all questions and a guide to sheets where supporting Excel information can be found.

Submit the following two documents:

• Completed Instructions/Answer sheet
• Excel workbook showing forecasting models and formulas used for calculations

Resources:

Below is the data file and the Instructions/Answer sheet for the case study. Please do the excel.