Question: (Chapter 5) A new car dealer has been using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.2 to forecast weekly new car sales. Given the data
(Chapter 5) A new car dealer has been using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.2 to forecast weekly new car sales. Given the data below, would a naive forecast have provided greater accuracy? Explain. Assume an initial exponential forecast of 60 units in period 2 (i.e., no forecast for period 1).
| Period | Demand |
| 1 | 57 |
| 2 | 62 |
| 3 | 58 |
| 4 | 60 |
| 5 | 60 |
| 6 | 56 |
First determine the exponential smoothing forecast and nave forecast for the entire time series.
Then compare the errors of both forecasts using MAD & MSE measures.
Can you provide answer in excel?
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