Question: compare MSE from different method. Data Seasonal Adjusted Plot Qtr Time Period Actual Data Qtr Year 2001 1 1 176 1 2 3 2 3

compare MSE from different method.

Data Seasonal Adjusted Plot Qtr Time Period Actual Data Qtr Year 2001 1 1 176 1 2 3 2 3 4 2 3 4 4 2002 1 1 2 3 5 6 7 2 3 4 4 2003 1 1 8 9 10 11 Time^2 1 4 9 16 25 36 49 64 81 100 121 144 169 196 225 256 289 324 361 400 2 Seasonal Forecast 172.749 145.077 180.295 190.420 185.107 156.293 195.219 207.160 202.270 171.482 214.999 228.938 224.236 190.646 239.636 255.754 251.007 213.783 269.130 287.608 134 186 195 189 157 195 211 205 180 212 229 223 192 234 248 239 217 271 284 Seasonal Index 102.9% 85.1% 104.0% 107.9% 102.9% 85.1% 104.0% 107.9% 102.9% 85.1% 104.0% 107.9% 102.9% 85.1% 104.0% 107.9% 102.9% 85.1% 104.0% 107.9% Quadratic Actual as a Trend % of Trend 167.858 105% 170.422 79% 173.278 107% 176.426 111% 179.866 105% 183,598 86% 187.621 104% 191.936 110% 196.543 104% 201.441 89% 206.631 103% 212.113 108% 217.887 102% 223.952 86% 230.310 102% 236.959 105% 243.899 98% 251.132 86% 258.656 105% 266.472 107% 274.580 282.979 291.671 300.654 2 3 3 4 4 2004 1 1 2 3 4 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2 3 4 2005 1 1 2 3 4 2 3 4 2006 21 22 1 2 1 2 3 4 441 484 529 576 282.581 240.894 303.482 324.501 102.9% 85.1% 104.0% 107.9% 23 24 MSE 28.625 DistCo (quadratic trend). 1 Actual Data 176 134 186 195 189 157 195 Time Year Qtr Period Time^2 2001 1 1 2 2 4 3 3 9 4 4 16 2002 1 5 25 2 6 36 3 7 49 4 8 64 2003 1 9 81 2 10 100 3 11 121 4 12 144 2004 1 13 169 2 14 196 3 15 225 4 16 256 2005 1 17 289 2 18 324 3 19 361 4 20 400 2006 21 441 2 22 484 3 23 529 4 24 576 211 205 180 212 229 223 192 234 248 239 217 271 284 Quadratic Trend 167.858 170.422 173.278 176.426 179.866 183.598 187.621 191.936 196.543 201.441 206.631 212.113 217.887 223.952 230.310 236.959 243.899 251.132 258.656 266.472 274.580 282.979 291.671 300.654 -- MSE 339.245 DistCo (linear trend).xls Sheet1 Data Time Period Year 2001 1 2. Qtr 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2002 2003 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Actual Data 176 134 186 195 189 157 195 211 205 180 212 229 223 192 234 248 239 217 271 284 Linear Trend 159.5429 164.7331 169.9233 175.1135 180.3038 185.4940 190.6842 195.8744 201.0647 206.2549 211.4451 216.6353 221.8256 227.0158 232.2060 237.3962 242.5865 247.7767 252.9669 258.1571 263.3474 268.5376 273.7278 278.9180 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 159.543 164.733 169.923 175.113 180.303 185.493 190.683 195.873 201.063 206.253 211.443 216.633 221.823 227.013 232.203 237.393 242.583 247.773 252.963 258.153 MSE 357.92432 2004 2005 1 17 2 3 4 2006 1 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2 3 4 DistCo (moving average).xls Time Period 2-Month Moving Avg 4-Month Moving Avg 3 4 5 Actual Data 176 134 186 195 189 157 195 211 205 180 212 229 6 7 00 155.00 160.00 190.50 192.00 173.00 176.00 203.00 208.00 192.50 196.00 220.50 226.00 207.50 213.00 241.00 243.50 228.00 244.00 277.50 284.00 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 223 192 234 248 239 217 271 284 172.75 176.00 181.75 184.00 188.00 192.00 197.75 202.00 206.50 211.00 214.00 219.50 224.25 228.25 234.50 243.75 252.75 257.33 277.50 284.00 24 MSE 777.39 502.29

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