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$f_x$

the model to use for the next periods forecast based on the Cumulative Bias and the MAD calculation, and show these in the columns below

One forecast is for the naive, one forecast for the moving average where $n=3$

One forecast using the weighted moving average with weights $0\mathrm{.}6,0\mathrm{.}3$ and $0\mathrm{.}1.$ The final two forecast use the exponential smoothin The first forecast uses alpha $=0\mathrm{.}7.$ The second forecast uses alpha $=0\mathrm{.}8$

Weights

$0\mathrm{.}2$

$0\mathrm{.}3$

$0\mathrm{.}5$

Alpha $=,0\mathrm{.}7$

$2$ Use your calculations above to calculate the MAD and CUMULATIVE BIAS

Show your work in the table above. Place the MAD and CUMULATIVE BIAS for each method below.

$]=[()MA()WMA)Expa=(0\mathrm{.}7)Expa=(0\mathrm{.}7)Expa=(0\mathrm{.}8)Expa=(0\mathrm{.}8$

Rule: Select the forecast with the lowest error, which is the lowest MAD. If there is a tie, we select th

For$$cast for period $31=,57\mathrm{.}1=071$

Forecast

$$

$11$

$D$

$5$

$4$

F$7$

F$8$

F$9$

F$10$

F$11$