Consider an option on a commodity which has a positive net convenience yield. The commodity has a current price of So and the futures price for delivery at T is F011: Consider the call on the commodity expiring at time T with strike K=F0'T. Suppose that the risk-free rate is strictly greater than 0%. We want to gure out whether the risk-neutral probability the option ends up in-the-money is greater than, less than, or equal to 50%. Argument 1: Because we know the futures prices are a martingale under the risk-neutral measure, EQ[FT,T]=F01T. By convergence of the spot and futures prices (FT,T=ST), this means the stock price will equal the strike on average so the risk-neutral probability will be 50%. Is this argument correct or incorrect? In one sentence, explain why it is correct or incorrect. Argument 2: The convenience yield and positive risk-free rate means the price of the commodity is expected to increase under the risk-neutral measure. This means the risk-neutral probability the call ends up in the money is greater than 50%. Is this argument correct or incorrect? In one sentence, explain why it is correct or incorrect. Argument 3: Both arguments are incorrect and wthout more information (such as the net convenience yield, risk-free rate, volatlity, etc), we cannot determine whether the risk-neutral probability is greater than, less than, or equal to 50%. Is this argument correct or incorrect? In one sentence, explain why it is correct or incorrect