Consider CASE $3$ AT THE END OF CHAPTER $3$ EXPLORING DATA PATTERNS AND CHOOSING A FORECASTING TECHNIQUE And answer the questions given in the case study. Also choose an appropriate method$($s$)$ for forecasting the number of new clients it acquired each month for year $1994$ using minitab. Comment on the obtained forecast.

The executive director, Marv Harnishfeger, concluded that the most important variable that Consumer Credit Counseling $($CCC$)$ needed to forecast was the number of new clients that would be seen in the rest of $1993.$ Marv provided Dorothy Mercer monthly data for the number of new clients

seen by CCC for the period from January $1985$ through March $1993.$ Dorothy then used autocorrelation analysis to explore the data pattern. Use the results of this investigation to complete the following tasks.

ASSIGNMENT

$1.$ Develop a naive model to forecast the number of new clients seen by CCC for the rest of $1993.$

$2.$ Develop a moving average model to forecast the number of new clients seen by CCC for the rest of $1993.$

$3.$ Develop an exponential smoothing procedure to forecast the number of new clients seen by CCC for the rest of $1993.$

$4.$ Evaluate these forecasting methods using the forecast error summary measures.

$5.$ Choose the best model and forecast new clients for the rest of $1993.$

$6.$ Determine the adequacy of the forecasting model you have chosen.