1. Consider the data in problem 2 and perform a scenario analysis using the percentages of change for the same uncertain variables and the probabilities for each scenario given in the following table:

Scenario Probability	5%	10%	20%	30%	20%	10%	5%
Scenario	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7
Net working capital investment	+30%	+20%	+10%	0%	-10%	-20%	-30%
Price of the new machine	+30%	+20%	+10%	0%	-10%	-20%	-30%
Operating cost savings	-30%	-20%	-10%	0%	+10%	+20%	+30%
Salvage value of the old machine at the end of its economic life	+30%	+20%	+10%	0%	-10%	-20%	-30%
Current salvage value of the old machine	-30%	-20%	-10%	0%	+10%	+20%	+30%

1. Determine the payback period, discounted payback period, NPV, PI, IRR, and MIRR of this project under each scenario.
2. Determine the expected NPV, PI, and IRR, and the corresponding standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and the probability of a negative NPV, a PI equal to 1, and an IRR equal to the firms IRR.
3. Perform a Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 trials to determine the expected NPV. Also determine the standard deviation of the expected NPV. The uncertain variables and their probability distributions are given in the following table:
4. Create a histogram using the Histogram chart type, showing the probability distribution of NPV.
5. Using the output of the simulation, determine the probability that the NPV will be less than or equal to zero. Compare your results with those of part (a).

Uncertain Variable	Distribution
Net working capital investment	Uniform: min. of $30K and max. of $50K
Price of the new machine	Triangular: min of $1.2M, most likely of $1.3M, and max. of $1.5M
Operating cost savings	Normal: mean of $400K and standard deviation of $250K
Tax rate	Normal: mean of 40%, standard deviation of 3%