Consider the following time series data:

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6

Value 18 13 16 11 17 14

Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.

Use =0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.

Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using =0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain.

Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for =0.2 .

PLEASE USE EXCEL