Consider the Moinas / Pouget experiment. We are interested in whether their setting can produce negative...
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Consider the Moinas / Pouget experiment. We are interested in whether their setting can produce negative bubbles. In their experiment, the starting price is 1, 10, 100, 1000, etc. with probability %, %, 1/8, 1/16, etc. Moreover, each period, the price increases by a factor of 10, such that if the starting price was p, the second-period price is 10p and the third-period price is 100p. Here, we assume that the price is not growing but shrinking. That is, if the starting price is p, the second-period price is p/10 and the third-period price is p/100. Moreover, the distribution of the starting price is 1, 1/10, 1/100, 1/1000, etc., with probability %, %4, 1/8, 1/16, etc. The redemption value of the asset in period 4 is 1, as in the original experiment. As in Moinas / Pouget, assume that a trader can hold the asset for at most one period. Can there be a negative bubble in which each trader shorts the asset? Answer based on the following assumptions: In each period, each trader can only either abstain from trading or shortsell the asset. Traders who short the asset short $1 in value of the asset. That is, if the price is p, they short 1/p units of the asset. If the price moves against the trader, her losses are capped; she will lose at most her original investment of $1. All traders are risk-neutral. Consider the Moinas / Pouget experiment. We are interested in whether their setting can produce negative bubbles. In their experiment, the starting price is 1, 10, 100, 1000, etc. with probability %, %, 1/8, 1/16, etc. Moreover, each period, the price increases by a factor of 10, such that if the starting price was p, the second-period price is 10p and the third-period price is 100p. Here, we assume that the price is not growing but shrinking. That is, if the starting price is p, the second-period price is p/10 and the third-period price is p/100. Moreover, the distribution of the starting price is 1, 1/10, 1/100, 1/1000, etc., with probability %, %4, 1/8, 1/16, etc. The redemption value of the asset in period 4 is 1, as in the original experiment. As in Moinas / Pouget, assume that a trader can hold the asset for at most one period. Can there be a negative bubble in which each trader shorts the asset? Answer based on the following assumptions: In each period, each trader can only either abstain from trading or shortsell the asset. Traders who short the asset short $1 in value of the asset. That is, if the price is p, they short 1/p units of the asset. If the price moves against the trader, her losses are capped; she will lose at most her original investment of $1. All traders are risk-neutral.
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Statistics Unlocking The Power Of Data
ISBN: 9780470601877
1st Edition
Authors: Robin H. Lock, Patti Frazer Lock, Kari Lock Morgan, Eric F. Lock, Dennis F. Lock
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