Question: Consider this problem: A con man has three coins. One coin has heads on both sides, one has tails on both sides, and the other

Consider this problem: A con man has three coins. One coin has heads on both sides, one has tails on both sides, and the other is normal (heads on one side, tails on the other). All coins are of the same denomination. The con man places the three coins in his pocket, selects one, and shows you one side. It is heads. He is willing to bet you money that it is the two-headed coin. His reasoning is that it can't be the two-tailed coin since a head is showing; therefore, there is a 50-50 chance of it being the two-headed coin.

Would you take the bet? Why or why not? What do you think your probability of winning is?

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