Could You Please include a formula or straight forward method that is applicable in other scenarios. Much Thanks

Aimee is the owner of a stock with annual returns of 27 percent, -32 percent, 11 percent, and 23 percent for the past four years. She thinks the stock may be able to achieve a return of 50 percent or more in a single year. What is the probability that your friend is correct? A. Less than .5 percent. B. Greater than .5 percent but less than 1 percent. C. Greater than 1 percent but less than 2.5 percent. D. Greater than 2.5 percent but less than 16 percent. E. Greater than 16 percent