Demand for an item for two years is: Quarter 1234 2 3 4 20X5 22 36...

  

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Demand for an item for two years is: Quarter 1234 2 3 4 20X5 22 36 45 15 20X6 28 32 40 18 Suppose we have renumbered the time periods in reverse order as 0, -1, -2, -3, . and initialized the components in the Winter's model as: â = 32.58, bo = 0.73, Fo= 0.488, F_₁ = 1.476, F_2 = 1.090 and F3 = 0.946. 6 marks a) -7 Given the above initialization, forecast demand for the four quarters of year 20X7 as of end of the fourth quarter of 20X6 (i.e., for periods 1 to 4 as of end of period 0). 13 marks b) Now suppose period 1 (i.e., the first quarter of year 20X7) has elapsed and the actual value for this period is seen to be 31. Apply the model using the initialized values given in part a) with αw = 2, PHW = .4 and YHW = .3. Now, reforecast demand for the remaining three quarters of year 20X7 as of end of the first quarter of year 20x7 (i.e., for periods 2, 3 and 4 as of end of period 1). Demand for an item for two years is: Quarter 1234 2 3 4 20X5 22 36 45 15 20X6 28 32 40 18 Suppose we have renumbered the time periods in reverse order as 0, -1, -2, -3, . and initialized the components in the Winter's model as: â = 32.58, bo = 0.73, Fo= 0.488, F_₁ = 1.476, F_2 = 1.090 and F3 = 0.946. 6 marks a) -7 Given the above initialization, forecast demand for the four quarters of year 20X7 as of end of the fourth quarter of 20X6 (i.e., for periods 1 to 4 as of end of period 0). 13 marks b) Now suppose period 1 (i.e., the first quarter of year 20X7) has elapsed and the actual value for this period is seen to be 31. Apply the model using the initialized values given in part a) with αw = 2, PHW = .4 and YHW = .3. Now, reforecast demand for the remaining three quarters of year 20X7 as of end of the first quarter of year 20x7 (i.e., for periods 2, 3 and 4 as of end of period 1).

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ANSWER a Using the Winters model we can forecast demand for the four quarters of year 20X7 as follow... View the full answer