(Demand Forecasting) The actual demand of a particular product over the past four years are given...

 

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(Demand Forecasting) The actual demand of a particular product over the past four years are given in Table Q5. Table Q5 Quarter Q1 a. Year 2018 C. 2019 2020 2021 88 2288 2288 2288 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Demand 1,100 1,100 1,300 1,600 2,200 2,600 2,800 2,900 3,400 3,500 3,900 4,300 4,500 4,500 5,100 Using exponential smoothing technique, calculate the demand of the product for the fourth quarter (Q4) of the year 2021, using smoothing parameter (a = 0.2) (7 Marks) b. Using exponential smoothing technique, calculate the demand of the product for the fourth quarter (Q4) of the year 2021, using smoothing parameter (a = 0.3). (7 Marks) Determine the accuracy of the above two forecast models using the following measures of forecast accuracy: (1) Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) (ii) Mean Squared Error (MSE), and (ii) Standard Error (SE). (2 Marks x 3 = 6 Marks) (Note: Take the average of the first two quarters as the forecast of the first quarter) [Total Marks: 20] (Demand Forecasting) The actual demand of a particular product over the past four years are given in Table Q5. Table Q5 Quarter Q1 a. Year 2018 C. 2019 2020 2021 88 2288 2288 2288 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Demand 1,100 1,100 1,300 1,600 2,200 2,600 2,800 2,900 3,400 3,500 3,900 4,300 4,500 4,500 5,100 Using exponential smoothing technique, calculate the demand of the product for the fourth quarter (Q4) of the year 2021, using smoothing parameter (a = 0.2) (7 Marks) b. Using exponential smoothing technique, calculate the demand of the product for the fourth quarter (Q4) of the year 2021, using smoothing parameter (a = 0.3). (7 Marks) Determine the accuracy of the above two forecast models using the following measures of forecast accuracy: (1) Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) (ii) Mean Squared Error (MSE), and (ii) Standard Error (SE). (2 Marks x 3 = 6 Marks) (Note: Take the average of the first two quarters as the forecast of the first quarter) [Total Marks: 20]

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a Using exponential smoothing technique calculate the demand of the product for t... View the full answer