Develop a three$-$week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week $7.$

Week $123456$

Value $161415121613$

Do not round intermediate calculations. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

MSE:

The forecast for week $7$:

Use $a=0\mathrm{.}2$ to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week $7.$

Do not round intermediate calculations. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

MSE:

The forecast for week $7$:

Compare the three$-$week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using $a=0\mathrm{.}2.$ Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?

Select your answer $-$

Explain.

Using this approach results in a

alpha: