Question: Draw a decision tree diagram (you'll submit it in the next question) and determine the expected payoff of your optimal choice for the following scenario:

Draw a decision tree diagram (you'll submit it in the next question) and determine the expected payoff of your optimal choice for the following scenario:

You are the new manager at Dan's Cat Empurrium in Bothell. You've recent been tasked with the potential growth of the company. After gathering data from your colleagues in operations as well as finance, marketing and economics you've discovered the following possibilities:

The marketing team has informed you of three possible locations to expand our operations to: Seattle, Everett or Bellevue. In each of these cities there's a chance that we get approved by the local governing board for a large operation (large store + stand-alone factory) or only get approval for a small operation (standard sized store, no factory). The chance of a large operation in Seattle is 40%, for Everett is 33%. and Bellevue is 14%. The small operation is the remaining probability.

If we have a large operation, we must choose to either produce and market our full range of goods or to specialize in a specific sub-set of our products. Our estimated profits in Seattle are 222,612 and 119,606 respectively, Everett's are 253,101 and 156,468 respectively, and Bellevue's are 238,931 and 116,655 respectively.

For the small operation we're stuck providing a sub-set of goods (might not be the same goods as in the large operation) and have a chance at a great customer turnout or a very low customer turnout. The chances of great customer turnout is 65% for each city and 35% for low customer turnout (again, for all three cities). Profits for Seattle are estimated to be 155,397 and 33,226, for great and small turnouts respectively, Everett is 134,612 and 37,158, and Bellevue is 133,991 and 32,076.

Remember to DRAW A DECISION TREE diagram for the next question.

Report the EXPECTED PAYOFF of the highest paying decision, rounded to the nearest dollar for this question.

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