Question: Estimating Share Value Using the DCF Model Assume following are forecasts of Abercrombie & Fitch's sales, net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), and net operating
Estimating Share Value Using the DCF Model Assume following are forecasts of Abercrombie & Fitch's sales, net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), and net operating assets (NOA) as of January 29, 2011.
| Reported | Horizon Period | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | Terminal Period |
| Sales | $ 3,750 | $ 4,500 | $ 5,400 | $ 6,480 | $ 7,776 | $ 7,853 |
| NOPAT | 464 | 581 | 679 | 815 | 957 | 978 |
| NOA | 1,350 | 1,624 | 1,922 | 2,306 | 2,798 | 2,827 |
Answer the following requirements assuming a discount rate (WACC) of 13.3%, a terminal period growth rate of 1%, common shares outstanding of 86.2 million, and net nonoperating obligations (NNO) of $(288) million (negative NNO reflects net nonoperating assets such as investments rather than net obligations). (a) Estimate the value of a share of Abercrombie & Fitch common stock using the discounted cash flow (DCF) model as of January 29, 2011.
Rounding instructions:
Round answers to the nearest whole number unless noted otherwise.
Use your rounded answers for subsequent calculations.
Do not use negative signs with any of your answers.
| Reported | Horizon Period | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In millions) | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | Terminal Period |
| Increase in NOA | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | |
| FCFF (NOPAT - Increase in NOA) | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | |
| Discount factor [1 / (1 + rw)t ] | (round to 5 decimal places) | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | |
| Present value of horizon FCFF | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | ||
| C u m present value of horizon FCFF | $ Answer | |||||
| Present value of terminal FCFF | Answer | |||||
| Total firm value | Answer | |||||
| NNO | Answer | |||||
| Firm equity value | $Answer | |||||
| Shares outstanding (millions) | Answer | (round one decimal place) | ||||
| Stock price per share | $Answer | (round two decimal places) | ||||
(b) Assume Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) stock closed at $77.56 on March 2, 2011. How does your valuation estimate compare with this closing price? What do you believe are some reasons for the difference?
a -Our stock price estimate is lower than the ANF market price, indicating that we believe that ANF stock is undervalued. Stock prices are a function of expected NOPAT and NOA, as well as the WACC discount rate. Our lower stock price estimate might be due to more optimistic forecasts or a lower discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts' model assumptions.
b- Our stock price estimate is lower than the ANF market price, indicating that we believe that ANF stock is overvalued. Stock prices are a function of expected NOPAT and NOA, as well as the WACC discount rate. Our lower stock price estimate might be due to more pessimistic forecasts or a higher discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts' model assumptions.
c- Stock prices are a function of many factors. It is impossible to speculate on the reasons for the difference.
d- Our stock price estimate is lower than the ANF market price, indicating that we believe that ANF stock is overvalued. Stock prices are a function of expected NOPAT and NOA, as well as the WACC discount rate. Our lower stock price estimate might be due to more optimistic forecasts or a lower discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts' model assumptions.
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