Example Forecasting Problem

After graduating from college, you and your friends start selling birdhouses made from recycled plastic. The idea has caught on, as shown by the following sales figures:

Month	Demand
March	2310
April	3100
May	3000
June	2400
July	2900
August	3000

1. Using Excel, prepare forecasts for June through September using the following models:
   1. Nave
   2. Moving Average with 2 periods
   3. Exponential Smoothing with alpha equal to .6, and an initial forecasting value for May of 2100.
   4. Regression Analysis

2. Determine the MAD and MAPE for June through August for each model. Which performed the best? Which performed the worst? Which forecast should you use for September?