Example Forecasting Problem

After graduating from college, you and your friends start selling birdhouses made from recycled plastic. The idea has caught on, as shown by the following sales figures:

Month	Demand
March	2310
April	3100
May	3000
June	2400
July	2900
August	3000

1. Determine the MAD and MAPE for June through August for each model. Which performed the best? Which performed the worst? Which forecast should you use for September?

F H M N Forecast Demand Forecast 2 month moving average B D E Month Demand Nalve March 2310 Month April 3100 May 3000 March June 2400 3000 April July 2900 August 3000 2900 June September 3000 August September 1671091 -21.59610 2560 6.91 -21.21 6.59610 - 21. 16710 b 64.29 6.91-21 21 y-2560 84.29% Month March April May June July August September Demand 2310 3100 3000 2400 2900 3000 2310 3100 3000 2400 2900 3000 2400 May 2100 2100+0.6" (3000-2100)2540 2640 0.62400-2640)=2496 249640.62900-2496)27384 2738.4+0.6/3000-2738.4)*2895.36 (3100423101/2-2705 (2000-3100)/2=3050 (2400+3000)/2-2700 (2900 2400)/2 2050 (3000+2900)/2-2950 July