Exercise #3 - Type II Contingency Calculations (25 points) Assignment Refer to the three risk statements that you wrote in the risk identification exercise. 1. Using the following table, assign a cost and schedule impact for each risk event. 2. Using the following table, assign a probability of occurrence for each risk event. 3. Calculate the expected value for your three risks. Risk Assessment Table example Low Moderate High Very Low Very High Cost impact Insignificant cost increase 10% cost increase 1-19% 20-39% 40-59% 60-79% 80-99% Probability of occurrence 4. What are your strategies for each of the identified risks? Write at least two strategies for each risk. Exercise #4 - Type III Probabilistic Output Calculations (25 Points) Assignment 1. Based on the first following Figure, what value should the owner carry as an overall cost and schedulc.estimats for the project (with 90% confidence)? 2. Based on the first following Figure, what value should the owner carry as contingency amount (S) and months (both cost and schedule) for the project (difference between cost and schedule estimates with 50 and 90 percent confidence)? 3. Based on the second following Figure, what risks have the greatest impact on the range of project cost? "What is the range of cost or schedule?" Cost/Time Probability Mass Function Distribution for Total Project Costa (Current Smil) Distribution for Project Schedule (Year What does it mean? "What risks have the greatest impact and where should I focus mitigation efforts?" Sensitivity Analysis Tornado Diagram 7 What does it mean? Exercise #3 - Type II Contingency Calculations (25 points) Assignment Refer to the three risk statements that you wrote in the risk identification exercise. 1. Using the following table, assign a cost and schedule impact for each risk event. 2. Using the following table, assign a probability of occurrence for each risk event. 3. Calculate the expected value for your three risks. Risk Assessment Table example Low Moderate High Very Low Very High Cost impact Insignificant cost increase 10% cost increase 1-19% 20-39% 40-59% 60-79% 80-99% Probability of occurrence 4. What are your strategies for each of the identified risks? Write at least two strategies for each risk. Exercise #4 - Type III Probabilistic Output Calculations (25 Points) Assignment 1. Based on the first following Figure, what value should the owner carry as an overall cost and schedulc.estimats for the project (with 90% confidence)? 2. Based on the first following Figure, what value should the owner carry as contingency amount (S) and months (both cost and schedule) for the project (difference between cost and schedule estimates with 50 and 90 percent confidence)? 3. Based on the second following Figure, what risks have the greatest impact on the range of project cost? "What is the range of cost or schedule?" Cost/Time Probability Mass Function Distribution for Total Project Costa (Current Smil) Distribution for Project Schedule (Year What does it mean? "What risks have the greatest impact and where should I focus mitigation efforts?" Sensitivity Analysis Tornado Diagram 7 What does it mean