Exercise: Performance Measurement A-12 Avenger Il Program Background Replacement for the US Navy's A-6 Intruder aircraft - January 1988, General Dynamics and McDonnell Douglas were awarded the full-scale development program Contract 6 year fixed price incentive contracts 5 full-scale test articles; 8 flight units First flight schedule for June 17, 1990 What Happened December 1989 formal program review Navy Program Manager declared program "on schedule, on cost, on track" Cost Performance Data provided starting in February 1989 Data for April 1990, Millions of Dollars Activities PV EV AC CPI TCPI SV SPI BAC EAC CV VAC A-12 $2,080 $1,491 $1,950 ($459) 0.765 1.043 ($589) 0.717 $ 4,046 $ 4,400 ($354) . . Based on the information provided, assess and document your opinion about the realism of the EAC for the A-12 program. To help you with the assessment, answer the following questions: What percent complete is the project? [EV/BAC] [Answer: ] What percent was scheduled to be complete? [PV/BAC] [Answer: ] What percent has been spent of the EAC? [AC/EAC] [Answer: ] Compare CPI and TCPI for realism: CPI shows the cost efficiency to date (Answer: ] TCPI shows the required cost efficiency to meet the EAC (Answer: ] If the CPI and TCPI are more than 10% different, the EAC is very likely to be unrealistic [(TCPI-CPI)/CPI] X 100 [Answer: ] Compare the overrun to date (CV) with the overrun at the end of the project (VAC): The CV shows the cost variance to date (CV = EV - AC] [Answer: ] The VAC shows the projected cost variance at the end of the project, based on the EAC [VAC = BAC - EAC] (Answer: 1 If the overrun to date (CV) is worse than the projected final overrun (VAC), then a recovery is NOT expected; recoveries of more than 10% are rare, especially if the project is more than 20% complete [VAC-CV)/CV] X 100 and EV/BAC X 100 (Answer: ] Calculate two statistical EACs, based on trends to date: Low End Statistical EAC (1) = AC + [(BAC - EV) / CPI] [Answer: ] High End Statistical EAC (2) = AC + [(BAC EV)/(CPIX SPI)] [Answer: ] If you were a consultant for the government, what action would you recommend for the A-12 Program? [Answer: ] . . . Exercise: Performance Measurement A-12 Avenger Il Program Background Replacement for the US Navy's A-6 Intruder aircraft - January 1988, General Dynamics and McDonnell Douglas were awarded the full-scale development program Contract 6 year fixed price incentive contracts 5 full-scale test articles; 8 flight units First flight schedule for June 17, 1990 What Happened December 1989 formal program review Navy Program Manager declared program "on schedule, on cost, on track" Cost Performance Data provided starting in February 1989 Data for April 1990, Millions of Dollars Activities PV EV AC CPI TCPI SV SPI BAC EAC CV VAC A-12 $2,080 $1,491 $1,950 ($459) 0.765 1.043 ($589) 0.717 $ 4,046 $ 4,400 ($354) . . Based on the information provided, assess and document your opinion about the realism of the EAC for the A-12 program. To help you with the assessment, answer the following questions: What percent complete is the project? [EV/BAC] [Answer: ] What percent was scheduled to be complete? [PV/BAC] [Answer: ] What percent has been spent of the EAC? [AC/EAC] [Answer: ] Compare CPI and TCPI for realism: CPI shows the cost efficiency to date (Answer: ] TCPI shows the required cost efficiency to meet the EAC (Answer: ] If the CPI and TCPI are more than 10% different, the EAC is very likely to be unrealistic [(TCPI-CPI)/CPI] X 100 [Answer: ] Compare the overrun to date (CV) with the overrun at the end of the project (VAC): The CV shows the cost variance to date (CV = EV - AC] [Answer: ] The VAC shows the projected cost variance at the end of the project, based on the EAC [VAC = BAC - EAC] (Answer: 1 If the overrun to date (CV) is worse than the projected final overrun (VAC), then a recovery is NOT expected; recoveries of more than 10% are rare, especially if the project is more than 20% complete [VAC-CV)/CV] X 100 and EV/BAC X 100 (Answer: ] Calculate two statistical EACs, based on trends to date: Low End Statistical EAC (1) = AC + [(BAC - EV) / CPI] [Answer: ] High End Statistical EAC (2) = AC + [(BAC EV)/(CPIX SPI)] [Answer: ] If you were a consultant for the government, what action would you recommend for the A-12 Program? [Answer: ]