Question: Find AR( p ) to Minimize AIC/BIC Automatically R : auto.arima (diff(x), max.p = 10, max.q = 0, ic = bic ) Find the first

Find AR( p ) to Minimize AIC/BIC Automatically

R : auto.arima (diff(x), max.p = 10, max.q = 0, ic = bic )

Find the first local minimum Series: diff(x) (change in inflation rate) ARIMA(6,0,0) with zero mean

Coefficients:

ar1 ar2 ar3 ar4 ar5 ar6

-0.6057 -0.4554 -0.4558 -0.3345 -0.2496 -0.1481

s.e. 0.0454 0.0522 0.0544 0.0546 0.0526 0.0457

sigma^2 estimated as 8.699: log likelihood=-1225.67 AIC=2465.33 AICc =2465.56 BIC=2494.69

Question:

Optimization AR(P)?

What is the interpretation of the r code of the model above, and interpret AIC and BIC?

R:fitma=arima(diff(x), order = c(0,0,3))

Coefficients:

ma1 ma2 ma3 intercept

-0.633 -0.1027 -0.1082 -0.0002

s.e. 0.046 0.0514 0.0470 0.0209

sigma^2 estimated as 8.505: log likelihood=-1220.26

AIC=2450.52, AICc=2450.65 BIC=2471.5

Question:

Kindly interpret the meaning of the r code?

What is the meaning of c(1,0,1) OR C(0,0,3)

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