(For Problem 10 and 11) The table below shows 10-year record of sales of a discount store Aodi. Aodi's 4th quarter includes Thanksgiving, Hanukah, Christmas ($ million) Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1Q $15,593 $15,935 $16,867 $16,706 $16,657 $17,119 $16, 196 $16.223 $16,781 $17,627 20 $15,532 $16,240 $16,779 $17,117 $16,957 $17,427 $16,169 $16,634 $17,776 $18,422 3Q $15,605 $16,402 $16,929 $17,258 $17,254 $17,613 $16,441 $16,874 $17,821 $18,665 4Q $20,660 $21,288 $22,726 $20,198 $21,750 $21,626 $21,465 $22,983 $22,978 $23,398 You are hired to make a forecast for each quarter in Year 11. As the 4Q sales were always much higher than those of other quarters, you decided to use To use the method, you need a forecast of Year 11 total sales. You first calculate the annual sales figures for the last 10 years, and see if there is a pattern. There is a drop in Year 4, but you see a bigger drop in Year After the second drop to Year 10, the annual sales figures show a clear linear pattern with a positive slope. Using that period, which shows a clear linear pattern, you decide to establish a linear regression model to forecast Year 11 totals sales. In the linear regression, independent variable is and dependent variable is You get the regression equation with a vertical intercept and a slope Thus you forecast Year 11 total sales as $ million 0.9993 3 51,873 7 an exponential smoothing method year annual sales seasonal indexes 80,655 2,616.5