Services Ana > Instructor What does it mea.. Think Twice - OG.. Status Texans vs. Chiets... Family Guy -BES 0:36:55 The table below shows 10-year record of sales of a discount store Aodi. Aodi's 4th quarter includes Thanksgiving, Hanukah, Christmas Year 10 20 30 40 ($ million) 1 2. 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 $15,593 $15,935 $16,867 $16,706 $16,657 $17,119 $16,196 $16,223 $16,781 $17,627 $15,532 $16,240 $16,779 $17.117 $16,957 $17.427 $16.169 $16.634 $17,776 $18.422 $15,605 $16,402 $16,929 $17.258 $17.254 $17,613 $16,441 $16.874 $17.821 $18.665 $20,660 $21,288 $22,726 $20,198 $21.750 $21,626 $21.465 $22.983 $22,978 $23,398 You are hired to make a forecast for each quarter in Year 11. As the 4Q sales were always much higher than those of other quarters, you decided to use To use the method, you need a forecast of Year 11 total sales. You first calculate the annual sales figures for the last 10 years, and see if there is a pattern. There is a drop in Year 4, but you see a bigger drop in Year After the second drop to Year 10, the annual sales figures show a clear linear pattern with a positive slope. Using that period, which shows a clear linear pattern, you decide to establish a linear regression model to forecast Year 11 totals sales. In the linear regression, independent variable is and dependent variable is and a You get a regression equation with a vertical intercept slope Thus you forecast Year 11 total sales as $ milion an exponential smoothing method year les gois VO * $ 4 % 5 & 7 6 6. 8 8 9 Services Ana > Instructor What does it mea.. Think Twice - OG.. Status Texans vs. Chiets... Family Guy -BES 0:36:55 The table below shows 10-year record of sales of a discount store Aodi. Aodi's 4th quarter includes Thanksgiving, Hanukah, Christmas Year 10 20 30 40 ($ million) 1 2. 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 $15,593 $15,935 $16,867 $16,706 $16,657 $17,119 $16,196 $16,223 $16,781 $17,627 $15,532 $16,240 $16,779 $17.117 $16,957 $17.427 $16.169 $16.634 $17,776 $18.422 $15,605 $16,402 $16,929 $17.258 $17.254 $17,613 $16,441 $16.874 $17.821 $18.665 $20,660 $21,288 $22,726 $20,198 $21.750 $21,626 $21.465 $22.983 $22,978 $23,398 You are hired to make a forecast for each quarter in Year 11. As the 4Q sales were always much higher than those of other quarters, you decided to use To use the method, you need a forecast of Year 11 total sales. You first calculate the annual sales figures for the last 10 years, and see if there is a pattern. There is a drop in Year 4, but you see a bigger drop in Year After the second drop to Year 10, the annual sales figures show a clear linear pattern with a positive slope. Using that period, which shows a clear linear pattern, you decide to establish a linear regression model to forecast Year 11 totals sales. In the linear regression, independent variable is and dependent variable is and a You get a regression equation with a vertical intercept slope Thus you forecast Year 11 total sales as $ milion an exponential smoothing method year les gois VO * $ 4 % 5 & 7 6 6. 8 8 9