For this problem you will perform polynomial regression of global temperature data from 1880-2020. The datafile...

Transcribed Image Text:

For this problem you will perform polynomial regression of global temperature data from 1880-2020. The datafile 'global_temp_data.csv' contains the year in the first column and yearly average temperature (change from temperature in 1951) in the second column. The figure below shows a plot of the global temperature change as a function of time. AT (C) 0.5 -0.5 1880 Global Temperature Change Relative to 1951 чт andry Viewende, Kipper 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year a) Using a 10-fold cross validation (CV) method, build the optimal polynomial model to fit the temperature data. What is the degree of the polynomial? Include a plot of the mean CV score as a function of the polynomial degree (up to 20). b) Overly a plot of your model over the data between 1880 and 2040. c) Using the model, what is the expected temperature change in 2040? d) Provide an estimate of the error (in degrees celcius) in your prediction from (c). Hint* What error metric could be useful? e) The model is making a prediction for 17 years in the future based on current and past trends. Describe in words any concerns you should have (and why) in interpreting that prediction. For this problem you will perform polynomial regression of global temperature data from 1880-2020. The datafile 'global_temp_data.csv' contains the year in the first column and yearly average temperature (change from temperature in 1951) in the second column. The figure below shows a plot of the global temperature change as a function of time. AT (C) 0.5 -0.5 1880 Global Temperature Change Relative to 1951 чт andry Viewende, Kipper 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year a) Using a 10-fold cross validation (CV) method, build the optimal polynomial model to fit the temperature data. What is the degree of the polynomial? Include a plot of the mean CV score as a function of the polynomial degree (up to 20). b) Overly a plot of your model over the data between 1880 and 2040. c) Using the model, what is the expected temperature change in 2040? d) Provide an estimate of the error (in degrees celcius) in your prediction from (c). Hint* What error metric could be useful? e) The model is making a prediction for 17 years in the future based on current and past trends. Describe in words any concerns you should have (and why) in interpreting that prediction.

Answer rating: 100% (QA)

a To find the optimal polynomial model degree using a 10fold crossvalidation CV method we will fit the temperature data with polynomial models of degrees ranging from 1 to 20 and calculate the mean CV ... View the full answer