For this week's discussion question, assume you are a business analyst for an ocean/rail shipping container manufacturer that sells products in over 70 countries. Obviously, the forecast for international shipping volume is a big factor to evaluate for decision-making when putting together financial budgets and plans for the upcoming year 2024. In addition to geopolitical uncertainty, various countries' efforts to lower inflation slowed global economic growth in 2023 from 2022 levels (www.worldbank.orgLinks to an external site. ). Any assessment of the 2024 Global Merchandise Trade Volume must reflect the latest developments and evaluation of both economic trends and geopolitical events.

Your discussion questions, listed below, are for you as a business analyst for the container manufacturer to answer in support of your forecast analysis for Global Merchandise Trade growth (volume based) for the full year 2024 over the full year 2023. Your analysis must include the research, analysis, and in-text citation of a minimum of two quality articles or reports, not included in this TOPIC OVERVIEW. This data-supported forecast analysis will help your company executives in their business plans/budgets for international shipping containers for 2024. Note that the executives at your company are interested in your data-supported, most recent assessment of forecasts for Global Merchandise Trade VOLUME (not value) for 2024 compared to 2023.

Discussion Questions

1. 1. (1) Based on your research, what is your most recent forecast of Global Merchandise Trade VOLUME change for total 2024 over total 2023 levels? How does your 2024 Global Merchandise Trade VOLUME forecast for 2024 over 2023 compared to the latest estimates for 2023 Global Merchandise Trade VOLUME change over 2022 levels? Be sure to provide in-text citations of the date and sources for your forecast analysis.
      
      
   2. (2) Please discuss three unique, substantive reasons for your forecast of Global Merchandise Trade volume in terms of its change in 2024 volume over 2023 volume. These reasons should be based on a minimum of two quality articles, research, blogs, etc. that you find, use, and cite in your post (be sure to CITE the source in your post narrative).
      
      
   3. (3) Which one of your three unique, substantive reasons do you have the LEAST CONFIDENCE that the assumptions underlying that reason or factor will NOT change over the next twelve months? How do you think that factor or reason might change from current expectations? Why? (this type of forecast analysis is often termed as identifying potential risks to a forecast’s accuracy).