1. Forecast milk production using the following methods: (solve using Excel)
   1. 3 period moving average
   2. Exponential smoothing with alpha 0.2
   3. Exponential smoothing with alpha 0.8
   4. Exponential smoothing with trend adjustment (Alpha=0.2, Beta = 0.3)
   5. Calculate the MAD for all the previous method
   6. Using your answer in E, which method should be used to forecast the 7^th year and why?

Months starting at 1970	Milk production in pounds per cow	3-MA	Exp.smoothing Alpha =0.2	Exp.smoothing Alpha =0.8	Exp.smoothing with trend Alpha =0.8, Beta= 0.3
1	750
2	707
3	807
4	824
5	886
6	859
7	819
8	783
9	740
10	747
11	711
12	751
13	804
14	756
15	860
16	878
17	942
18	913
19	869
20	834
21	790
22	800
23	763
24	800
25	826
26	799
27	890
28	900
29	961
30	935
31	894
32	855
33	809
34	810
35	766
36	805