Forecast Planning

Using the previous sales data below, create forecast models and determine which model you feel could be considered a "best fit"

Explain the criteria you used to make your recommendation

EMA

Ct $=$

$0\mathrm{.}2$

Y$=$ $$10,94,641$

X $=78$

January $$99,500$

$99500\text{'}$

$99500$

$$99,500$

$$33,843$

February

$$84,350$

$$91,925$

$$84,350$

$$96,470$

$$45,385$

March

$$92,550$

$$88,450\text{'}$

$92550$

$$85,990*$

$$56,927$

April $$89,900$

$$91,225"$

$91575\text{'}$

$$92,020\text{'}$

$$68,469$

$5$

May

$$98,630$

$$94,265$

$91357\mathrm{.}5$

$$91,646$

$$80,011$

June $$1,14,352$

$$1,06,491/$

$98858$

$$1,01,774$

$$91,552$

July $$1,19,852$

$$1,17,102\text{'}$

$105683\mathrm{.}5$

$51,15,452\text{'}$

$$1,03,094$

August

$$58,458$

$$89,155"$

$97823\text{'}$

$$1,07,573$

$$1,14,636$

$10$

$11$

$12$

September

October

November

December

$$69,852$

$$71,456$

$$98,456$

$$97,285$

$$64,155\text{'}$

$$70,654\text{'}$

$$84,956\text{'}$

$$97,871$

$90628\mathrm{.}5\text{'}$

$34262\mathrm{.}25$

$$60,737\text{'}$

$79904\mathrm{.}5\text{'}$

$74555\mathrm{.}5\text{'}$

$$70,173\text{'}$

$$76,856\text{'}$

$$98,222$

$$1,26,178$

$$1,37,720$

$$1,49,262$

$$1,60,803$

EMA

EMA tends to be a strong candidate as it offers a good balance between simplicity and responsiveness. It can capture short$-$term trends while smoothing out noise in the data.