Forecast total Harley-Davidson quarterly motorcycle shipments for 2007 using Four-Period Moving Average (MA) (3points) Four-Period Weighted Moving
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Question:
Forecast total Harley-Davidson quarterly motorcycle shipments for 2007 using
- Four-Period Moving Average (MA) (3points)
- Four-Period Weighted Moving Average (WMA)(3points)
- Exponential Smoothing (ES)(3points)
- Holt's Method(3points)
- Winter's Method(3points)
In addition, make a recommendation of which forecasting method you think Harley-Davidson should use and why.
Please use excel and show formulas/constraints.
| Year | Quarter | Time Period | Demand A |
| 2000 | 1 | 1 | 49057 |
| 2 | 2 | 53329 | |
| 3 | 3 | 48077 | |
| 4 | 4 | 54129 | |
| 2001 | 1 | 5 | 54154 |
| 2 | 6 | 60161 | |
| 3 | 7 | 56611 | |
| 4 | 8 | 63535 | |
| 2002 | 1 | 9 | 64669 |
| 2 | 10 | 65540 | |
| 3 | 11 | 67474 | |
| 4 | 12 | 65970 | |
| 2003 | 1 | 13 | 70608 |
| 2 | 14 | 76025 | |
| 3 | 15 | 67458 | |
| 4 | 16 | 77056 | |
| 2004 | 1 | 17 | 74090 |
| 2 | 18 | 82034 | |
| 3 | 19 | 80578 | |
| 4 | 20 | 80587 | |
| 2005 | 1 | 21 | 76716 |
| 2 | 22 | 77128 | |
| 3 | 23 | 87585 | |
| 4 | 24 | 87588 | |
| 2006 | 1 | 25 | 79506 |
| 2 | 26 | 79796 | |
| 3 | 27 | 97046 | |
| 4 | 28 | 92848 |
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