Forecasting and Estimating Share Value Using the DCF Model

Following are the income statement and balance sheet for Intel Corporation.

INTEL CORPORATION Consolidated Statements of Income
Year Ended (In millions)	Dec. 25, 2010	Dec. 26, 2009	Dec. 27, 2008
Net revenue	$ 43,623	$ 35,127	$ 37,586
Cost of sales	15,132	15,566	16,742
Gross margin	28,491	19,561	20,844
Research and development	6,576	5,653	5,722
Marketing, general and administrative	6,309	7,931	5,452
Restructuring and asset impairment charges	--	231	710
Amortization of acquisition-related intangibles	18	35	6
Operating expenses	12,903	13,850	11,890
Operating income	15,588	5,711	8,954
Gains (losses) on equity method investments, net*	117	(147)	(1,380)
Gains (losses) on other equity investments, net	231	(23)	(376)
Interest and other, net	109	163	488
Income before taxes	16,045	5,704	7,686
Provisions for taxes	4,581	1,335	2,394
Net income	$ 11,464	$ 4,369	$ 5,292

*This should be considered as operating income.

INTEL CORPORATION Consolidated Balance Sheets
As of Year-Ended (In millions, except par value)	Dec. 25, 2010	Dec. 26, 2009
Assets
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 5,498	$ 3,987
Short-term investments	11,294	5,285
Trading assets	5,093	4,648
Accounts receivables, net	2,867	2,273
Inventories	3,757	2,935
Deferred tax assets	1,488	1,216
Other current assets	1,614	813
Total current assets	31,611	21,157
Property, plant and equipment, net	17,899	17,225
Marketable equity securities	1,008	773
Other long-term investments**	3,026	4,179
Goodwill	4,531	4,421
Other long-term assets	5,111	5,340
Total assets	$63,186	$53,095
Liabilities
Current liabilities
Short-term debt	$38	$172
Accounts payable	2,290	1,883
Accrued compensation and benefits	2,888	2,448
Accrued advertising	1,007	773
Deferred income on shipments to distributors	622	593
Other accrued liabilities	2,482	1,722
Total current liabilities	9,327	7,591
Long-term income taxes payable	190	193
Long-term debt	2,077	2,049
Long-term deferred tax liabilities	926	555
Other long-term liabilities	1,236	1,003
Total liabilities	13,756	11,391
Stockholders' equity:
Preferred stock, $0.001 par value	--	--
Common stock, $0.001 par value, 10,000 shares authorized; 5,581 issued and 5,511 outstanding and capital in excess of par value	16,178	14,993
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)	333	393
Retained earnings	32,919	26,318
Total stockholders' equity	49,430	41,704
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity	$ 63,186	$ 53,095

** These investments are operating assets as they relate to associated companies. (a) Compute Intel's net operating assets (NOA) for year-end 2010. 2010 NOA = $Answer

0.00 points out of 1.00

(b) Compute net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) for 2010, assuming a federal and state statutory tax rate of 37%.

HINT: Gains/losses on equity method investments are considered operating income. Round your answer to the nearest whole number. 2010 NOPAT = $Answer

0.00 points out of 1.00

(c) Forecast Intel's sales, NOPAT, and NOA for years 2011 through 2014 using the following assumptions:

Sales growth	10%
Net operating profit margin (NOPM)	26%
Net operating asset turnover (NOAT) at fiscal year-end	1.50

Forecast the terminal period value using the assumptions above and assuming a terminal period growth of: 1%.

INTC	Reported	Forecast Horizon				Terminal
($ millions)	2010	2011 Est.	2012 Est.	2013 Est.	2014 Est.	Period
Sales (rounded two decimal places)	$Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	$Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	$Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	$Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	$Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	$Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00
Sales (rounded nearest whole number)	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00
NOPAT (rounded nearest whole number)*	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00
NOA (rounded nearest whole number)*	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00

* Use sales rounded to nearest whole number for this calculation.

(d) Estimate the value of a share of Intel common stock using the discounted cash flow (DCF) model as of December 25, 2010; assume a discount rate (WACC) of 11%, common shares outstanding of 5,511 million, and net nonoperating obligations (NNO) of $(20,778) million (NNO is negative which means that Intel has net nonoperating investments).

Use your rounded answers for subsequent calculations.

Do not use negative signs with any of your answers below.

INTC	Reported	Forecast Horizon				Terminal
($ millions)	2010	2011 Est.	2012 Est.	2013 Est.	2014 Est.	Period
DCF Model
Increase in NOA		Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00
FCFF (NOPAT - Increase in NOA)		Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00
Discount factor	(rounded 5 decimal places)	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00
Present value of horizon FCFF	(rounded to nearest whole number)	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00
Cumulative present value of horizon FCFF	$Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	(rounded to nearest whole number)
Present value of terminal FCFF	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	(rounded to nearest whole number)
Total firm value	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	(rounded to nearest whole number)
NNO	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00
Firm equity value	$Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	(rounded to nearest whole number)
Shares outstanding (millions)	Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	(rounded to nearest whole number)
Stock price per share	$Answer 0.00 points out of 1.00	(rounded to two decimal places)

(e) Intel (INTC) stock closed at $22.14 on February 18, 2011. How does your valuation estimate compare with this closing price? What do you believe are some reasons for the difference? What investment decision is suggested from your results? (Select all that apply) Answeryesno

1.00 points out of 1.00

Our stock price estimate is higher than the INTC market price as of February 18, 2011, indicating that we believe the stock is undervalued. Answeryesno Stock prices are a function of expected NOPAT and NOA, as well as the WACC discount rate. Answeryesno Our higher stock price estimate may be due to more optimistic forecasts or a lower discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts model assumptions. Answeryesno Our lower stock price estimate may be due to more pessimistic forecasts or a higher discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts model assumptions.