Forecasting Assignment

Use the data below to compute the following:

Period (t)	At or Yt
1	405
2	412
3	319
4	428
5	332
6	367
7	376

A.) Compute the 4-period simple moving average forecasts. Compute the MAD and MSE for the 4-period simple moving average.

B.) Compute the 4-period weighted moving average forecasts using the weights= 0.2, 0.15, 0.35, and 0.3. Compute the MAD and MSE for the 4-period weighted moving average.

C.) Compute the exponential smoothing forecasts using alpha=0.25. Compute the MAD and MSE for the exponential smoothing forecasts.

D.) Calculate the regression line. Compute the MAD and MSE for the regression line.

E.) Use your results for A.)-D.) to determine the best forecast. Explain your results.

PLEASE SHOW YOUR WORK