Instructions

Forecasting Assignment

Use the data below to compute the following:

Period (t)	At or Yt
1	400
2	412
3	325
4	428
5	332
6	367
7	376
8	481
9	382

A.) Compute the 4 period simple moving average forecasts. Compute the MAD and MSE for the 4-period simple moving average.

B.) Compute the 3-period weighted moving average forecasts using the weights=0.5, 0.2, 0.3. Compute the MAD and MSE for the 3-period weighted moving average.

C.) Compute the exponential smoothing forecasts using alpha=0.25. Compute the MAD and MSE for the exponential smoothing forecasts.

D.) Calculate the regression line. Compute the MAD and MSE for the regression line.

E.) Use your results for A.)-D.) to determine which forecast is best. Explain your results.

Notes:

• Go to the Module 4 PowerPoint notes and follow the same steps from the notes. SHOW YOUR WORK!!
• You can work by yourself, with a partner or with up to 2 people (ie no more than 3 names on a paper). If you work with a group, only 1 person needs to submit the assignment (with everyones name) to the Dropbox on D2L.
• Your work can be handwritten. You can but do not have to use Excel to complete this assignment.
• Submit your assignment to the Dropbox on D2L. Upload only 1 document that includes all your work. You may need to use the CamScanner App on your phone or a regular scanner to upload all work.