Forecasting can play an essential role in reducing wastes and costs and matching demand and supply.

However, the level of accuracy is a game changer, hence, the importance of evaluating multiple

approaches and selecting the best.

Task:

- Implement the forecasting steps on the below historical data:

Plot the data

Check for seasonality

Suggest proper segmentation

Apply Simple Moving Average method with ALL possible orders

Start with the first two, compare them, decide which on is better, and then compare it

with the next one, i.e. compare two orders at a time

Use the best order to forecast the next day (Sunday of week 5)

use common forecasting Techniques:

1- Simple moving a average

2- Weighted moving average

3- Exponential s moothing

use forecast error methods to compare between Forecasting Techniques

1- CFE

2- MSE

3- MAD

4- MAPE

5- Track signal

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Sun 12 14 13 9 Mon 14 11 15 15 Tue 13 7 10 12 Wed 11 11 10 16 Thu 23 21 19 22 Fri 18 24 20 25 Sat 25 23 24 23