Forecasting Case Study: New Business Planning Important Note: Students must access the \"Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy\" page of the Bureau of Labor Statistics website in order to complete this assignment. Scenario The generation of new business start-up is vital to the growth of the economy as it builds new jobs and creates new opportunities for the community. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks new business development and jobs created on the website for the United States Department of Labor. You have been tasked with forecasting economic growth and decline patterns for new businesses in the United States. Forecasting Access the \"Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy\" page of the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. Under the "Business establishment age" heading, the first chart reviews new businesses less than 1 year old during the March 1994 to March 2015 period. Click on the [Chart data] link below the chart: Once the chart data window opens, you will see the number of establishments that are less than 1 year old for each year during this period: Using the five most recent years and the "Forecasting Template" spreadsheet provided, complete the forecasts for the next two periods and provide updated Totals and Average Bias, median absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for all four charts. Provide a Summary Page in Excel with a 500-750 word report on the analysis completed by the forecasting models. Include review of error, recommendations on the best forecasting model to use, and analysis of the business trend data for new business startup in the United States. 2 Forecasting Moving averages - 2 period moving average Enter Enter the the past past demands demands in in the the data data area area Num pds 3 Data Period Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Demand 582569 631817 629078 652780 679072 Period 6 Period 7 665926 Forecasts and Error Analysis Forecast Error Absolute 607193 630447.5 640929 Total Average Squared Abs Pct Err 21885 21885 478953225 03.48% 22332.5 22332.5 498740556 03.42% 38143 38143 1.45E+009 05.62% 82360.5 82360.5 2.43E+009 12.52% 27453.5 27453.5 810860743 04.17% before forecast Bias MAD MSE MAPE 672499 Average -6573 6573 43204329 00.99% after forecast period 6 Bias MAD MSE MAPE Forecasting 700000 680000 before forecast 660000 640000 620000 after forecast period 6 Value 600000 580000 560000 540000 520000 1 2 3 Time Demand Forecast 4 5 Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average Enter Enter the the past past demands demands in in the the data data area area Num pds 3 Data Period Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Demand 582569 631817 629078 652780 679072 Period 6 Period 7 50 44 Forecasts and Error Analysis Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err 614488 38292 38292 1.47E+009 05.87% 637891.67 41180.333 41180.333 1.70E+009 06.06% Total 79472.333 79472.333 3.16E+009 11.93% Average 39736.167 39736.167 1.58E+009 05.97% Bias MAD MSE MAPE 443967.33 -443917.33 443917.33 1.97E+011 Average Bias MAD MSE MAPE ### after forecast period 6 Forecasting 700000 680000 660000 640000 620000 after forecast period 6 Value 600000 580000 560000 540000 520000 1 2 3 Time Demand Forecast 4 5 Forecasting Exponential smoothing Enter Enter alpha alpha (between (between 00 and and 1), 1), enter enter the the past past demands demands in in the the shaded shaded column column then then enter enter aa starting starting forecast. forecast. IfIf the the starting starting forecast forecast isis not not in in the the first first period period then then delete delete the the error error analysis analysis for for all all rows rows above above the the starting starting forecast. forecast. Alpha Data Period Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 0.3 Demand 582569 631817 629078 652780 679072 Period 6 Period 7 50 44 Forecasts and Error Analysis Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err 582569 0 0 0 0.00% 582569 49248 49248 2.43E+009 7.79% 597343.4 31734.6 31734.6 1.01E+009 5.04% 606863.78 45916.22 45916.22 2.11E+009 7.03% 620638.65 58433.354 58433.354 3.41E+009 8.60% Total 185332.17 185332.17 8.96E+009 28.48% Average 37066.435 37066.435 1.79E+009 05.70% Before forecast Bias MAD MSE MAPE SE 54635.783 638168.65 -638118.65 638118.65 4.07E+011 ### Average after forecast period 6 Bias MAD MSE MAPE Forecasting 700000 680000 660000 Before forecast 640000 620000 after forecast period 6 Value 600000 580000 560000 540000 520000 1 2 Time 582569 582 Forecasting 2 3 Time 582569 582569 4 Forecasting Trend adjusted exponential smoothing Enter Enter alpha alpha and and beta beta (between (between 00 and and 1), 1), enter enter the the past past demands demands in in the the shaded shaded column column then then enter enter aa starting starting forecast. forecast. IfIf the the starting starting forecast forecast isis not not in in the the first first period period then then delete delete the the error error analysis analysis for for all all rows rows above above the the starting starting forecast. forecast. Alpha Beta Data Period Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 0.3 0.7 Forecasts and Error Analysis Demand 582569 631817 629078 652780 679072 Next period 662873.86 Next period Forecast Smoothed Including Forecast, Smoothed Trend, Ft Trend, Tt FITt Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err 582569 582569 0 0 0 00.00% 582569 0 582569 49248 49248 2.43E+009 07.79% 597343.4 10342.08 607685.48 21392.52 21392.52 457639912 03.40% 614103.24 14834.509 628937.75 23842.255 23842.25 568453114 03.65% 636090.42 19841.383 655931.8 23140.196 23140.2 535468655 0.0340762 662873.86 24700.824 687574.69 Total 117622.97 117623 3.99E+009 18.26% Average 23524.594 23524.59 797385437 03.65% Bias MAD MSE MAPE SE 36455.119 680164.44 12103.404 692267.84 Total Average Bias MAD MSE SE MAPE 0 700000 680000 660000 640000 620000 After forecast Value 600000 580000 560000 540000 520000 1 De Forecasting 700000 680000 660000 640000 620000 Value 600000 580000 560000 540000 520000 1 2 3 Time Demand Smoothed Forecast, Ft 4 5