Forecasting: Data for operations management class enrollment for the last few blocks are as follows

25, 28, 30, 20, 15, 12, 20, 25, 15, 1o

Use the three different forecasting methods below and determine the most accurate method using MAD. Show your work in Excel.

1. Weighted moving average three periods at a time with weights .5 , .3, and .3 (starting at period 4)
2. Exponential Smoothing with smoothing factor alpha=0.4 and initial forecast=20
3. Linear forecasting simple regression. What is the equation? From the graph, do you see that this method is appropriate? when in general is a linear model appropriate? Is it appropriate here?