FORECASTING

Data from day 1 to 14 -- 3244, 3273, 2974, 3283, 3922, 3669, 4246, 4594, 4086, 4302, 4024, 5516, 4741 and 5271, respectively.

(a) Between 3-day moving average versus 5-day moving average, which one would you choose for forecasting? Between exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.3 and alpha = 0.5, which one would you choose for forecasting?

(b) What is your forecast for day 15 using the 3-day moving average method? What is your forecast for day 15 using the linear regression method with the intercept of 2861 and slope of 162.78? (2 decimal places)

(c) What is the MAPD, also called MAPE, of the 3-day moving average, excluding the forecasted value for day 15? What is the MAPD, also called MAPE, of the linear regression, excluding the forecasted value for day 15? (2 decimals places)

(d) What percentage of change can be explained by periods (the independent variable)?

Please show calculations