Forecasting Practice

1. Calculate the 3 Month Moving Average and the MADs for this scenario beginning with April.

Month	Demand	3 Month Moving Average Forecast	Absolute Deviation
January	1001
February	953
March	975
April	966
May	1010
		Mean absolute Deviation:

2. Calculate a 3 month Weighted moving average for the following scenario. Use the weightings of 60%, 25% and 15% with 60% being for the most recent month. What is the average MSE for all of the months where you are able to calculate a forecast?

Month	Demand	3 Month Weighted Moving Average	Error	Squared Error
June	250
July	325
August	277
September	305
October	320
			Mean Squared Error

3. The following table provides your Actual forecast and Demand. Calculate the Error, the RSFE, the MAD and the Tracking Signal for the end of October.

Month	Demand	Forecast	Error	RSFE	Absolute Deviation	Tracking Signal
June	250	295
July	325	295
August	277	295
September	305	295
October	320	295
				Mean absolute Deviation

4. Using simple exponential smoothing with an Alpha of .63, develop a forecast for the following months. The forecast for the first month (January) can be made equal to the demand number.

Month	Demand	Forecast (alpha = .63)
January	735	735
February	763
March	777
April	753
May	792