Question: Forecasting: Practice Computational Problems Problem 1: If the forecast errors for four consecutive periods are 2, -4,6, and 4, what are: a) the mean absolute

Forecasting: Practice Computational Problems

Forecasting: Practice Computational Problems Problem 1: If the forecast errors for four consecutive periods are 2, -4,6, and 4, what are: a) the mean absolute deviation? b) the mean squared error? Problem 2: If the forecast errors for five consecutive periods are 6, -3, -7,7, and 2, what are: a) the mean absolute deviation? b) the mean squared error? Problem 3: Using the data below: Period 1 Sales 543 2 3 4 5 6 482 501 513 5 495 525 a) Find the forecast for period 6 using the nave method. b) Find the forecast for period 7 based on a two-period moving average. c) Find the forecast for period 7 based on a four-period moving average. d) Find the forecast for period 7 based on a four-period weighted moving average using the following weights: 0.4 0.3 1 period prior 2 periods prior 3 periods prior 4 periods prior 0.2 0.1 e) Find the forecast for period 7 based on exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.7 and assuming that the forecast for period 4 was 500. Problem 4: Using the data below: Period 1 2 3 4 Sales 101 113 110 122 134 146 5 6 a) Find the forecast for period 7 based on a three-period moving average. b) Find the forecast for period 7 based on a five-period moving average. c) Find the forecast for period 2 using the nave method. d) Find the forecast for period 7 based on a four-period weighted moving average using the following weights: 1 period prior 2 periods prior 3 periods prior 4 periods prior 0.5 0.25 0.17 0.08 e) Find the forecast for period 7 based on exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5 and assuming that the forecast for period 5 was 122. Problem 5: Given the following data, find the seasonal relatives for all four quarters. Sales 568 Period Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 612 548 989 586 706 709 980 Problem 6: Given the following data, find the seasonal relatives for all four quarters. Period Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Sales 1250 1333 1309 1496 1312 1457 1504 1564 Problem 7: A Six Flags amusement park estimates its daily attendance with the function below, using temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit) and precipitation in inches): Attendance = 80(Temperature) - 2500(Precipitation) + 800. If the weather forecast is 95F and 0.25 inches of precipitation, what is estimated attendance? Problem 8: A Six Flags amusement park estimates its daily attendance by the following function using temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit) and precipitation (in inches): Attendance = 130(Temperature) 1800(Precipitation) - 2100. If the weather forecast is 80F and 0.5 inches of precipitation, what is estimated attendance

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