Forecasting Problem

Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the historical data shown in the table below. Address the following.

a. Provide descriptive statistics and a scatter plot for these data (5 points)

b. Calculate the simple four-month moving average forecast for periods 5 through 12. (5 points)

c. Calculate the weighted two-month moving average forecast for periods 4 through 12 using w1=.2, w2=.8 (5 points)

d. Calculate the single exponential forecasts for periods 3 through 12 using an initial forecast for period 2 of 60. Use .4 as the smoothing constant. (5 points)

e. Over, periods 5 through 12, which forecast is best? How did you determine this? (5 points)

f. Create an additional forecast for these data that you think should be considered. Compare it to the other forecasts created. Is it superior to the other models? Why/Why not? Provide evidence and advice for your manager. (15 points)

Month	Demand
1	248
2	260
3	268
4	272
5	284
6	292
7	304
8	312
9	312
10	321
11	336
12	336