Forecasting Question- SMA, WMA, Exponential Smoothing, MAD (mean absolute deviation)

Sales for the last 12 months at a company are the following:

Month	Actual Sales ($ M)	Forecast3-Month Simple Moving Average	Deviation		Forecast 2-Month Weighted Moving Average	Deviation		Forecast Exponential Smoothing	Deviation
Jan	20							22
Feb	24
Mar	27
Apr	31	23.6
May	37
Jun	47
Jul	53
			MAD			MAD			MAD

a. Calculate the forecast, for every possible month, according to the Simple Moving Average Method- 3-Month SMA. Calculate the MAD for this forecast.

b. Calculate the forecast, for every possible month, according to the 2-Month Weighted Moving Average Method (Weights are 0.6 for the most recent month and 0.4 to the month before that). Calculate the MAD for this forecast.

c. Calculate the forecast, for every possible month, according to the Exponential Smoothing Method. (Alpha is 0.6) Given that the forecast for January is 22. Calculate the MAD for this forecast

d. Which forecasting method would you choose for your company?

e. Why?