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Daily hire rate forecasting Calendar year 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 2056 2057 2058 2059 2060 2061 2062 2063 2064 2065 2066 2067 2068 2069 2070 2071 2072 2073 2074 2075 2076 2077 Ship year (SY) SYO SY1 SY2 SY3 SY4 SY5 SY6 SY7 SY8 SY9 SY10 SY11 SY12 SY13 SY14 SY15 SY16 SY17 SY18 SY19 SY20 SY21 SY22 SY23 SY24 SY25 Estimated annual shipments (millions of tons) 3,415 3,489 3,559 3,634 3, 3,703 3,773 3,833 3,887 3,946 4,007 4,061 4,129 4,191 4,258 4,319 4,381 4,449 4,511 4,586 4,647 4,717 4,793 4,863 4,938 5,007 5,085 5,161 5,239 X1 (% change in demand) 0.022 0.020 |0.021 0.019 0.019 0.016 0.014 0.015 0.015 0.013 0.017 0.015 0.016 0.014 0.014 0.016 0.014 0.017 0.013 0.015 0.016 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.016 0.015 0.015 Industry forecast for the ship supply Estimated net capacity (new order - scrap) 3,375 3,447 3,519 3,663 3,744 3,933 4,140 4,248 4,356 4,509 4,815 4,968 5,049 5,157 5,211 5,193 5,139 5,139 5,283 5,301 5,310 5,499 5,751 6,057 6, 165 6 ,237 X2 (% change in supply 0.021 0.020 0.020 0.022 0.050 0.053 0.026 0.025 0.035 0.068 0.032 0.016 0.021 0.010 -0.003 -0.010 0.000 0.016 0.012 0.003 0.002 0.036 0.046 0.053 0.018 0.012 Daily hire rate forecast *Model: y = 0.007 + 1.4*x, - 1.6*x2 y (% change in daily hire rate) 0.003 0.002 0.004 0.002 -0.002 -0.052 0 0.007 -0.013 -0.012 -0.030 -0.078 -0.023 0.003 -0.007 0.010 0.034 0.043 0.030 0.000 0.009 0.024 0.025 -0.028 -0.047 -0.056 -0.001 0.009 Estimated daily hire rates ($000s) 50.0 50.160 50.244 50.433 50.509 50.412 47.816 48.150 47.501 46.929 45.506 41.950 40.993 41.128 40.833 41.255 42.668 44.509 45.857 45.876 46.278 47.394 48.566 47.189 44.982 42.449 42.423 42.825 "Avg. daily hire rate in 2050 = $50 thousand (given)