Question: Give me the r code to solve this problem Problems A souvenir shop in a beach resort town in Queensland, Australia is attempting to forecast
Give me the r code to solve this problem
Problems
A souvenir shop in a beach resort town in Queensland, Australia is attempting to forecast sales for the months of the year The forecast will be based on the shop's monthly sales data, in Australian dollars, from to This historical sales data is available in the SouvenirSales.csv file.
Create a time plot of monthly sales for the souvenir shop. Provide your screenshot of the plot here. point
Based on the plot, do you see a trend in the data? If so what kind of trend do you expect? point
Based on the plot, do you see a seasonality in the data? If so how many months are in one season point
Partition the data into training and validation sets, with the validation set containing the last months of data year Remember to fit only the training data.
Perform a nave forecast with seasonal mean values Note: nave with seasonal mean is different from nave forecast Remember to fit only the training data. point What is the RMSE for the forecast on the validation data Note: Look at the RMSE under the test set, not the training set point
Run a regression model with a linear trend and monthly seasonality. Remember to fit only the training data.
a
What is the estimated trend coefficient? point What does this mean? point
b
What is the RMSE for the forecast on the validation data? Does this model perform better or worse than the nave forecast in Question point
Dont confuse the time series term season which is the period over which a cyclical pattern repeats eg a year with the standard English seasons of the year fall winter, etc.
Use HoltWinters exponential smoothing approach to make a prediction. Remember to fit only the training data.
a
What is the RMSE for the forecast on the validation data? Does this model perform better or worse than the nave forecast in Question point
b
Plot the predicted values and actual values of the validation data. Provide your screenshot of the plot here. point
Step by Step Solution
There are 3 Steps involved in it
1 Expert Approved Answer
Step: 1 Unlock
Question Has Been Solved by an Expert!
Get step-by-step solutions from verified subject matter experts
Step: 2 Unlock
Step: 3 Unlock
